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RT Patarames: What basically happened last night: They made it out! ➡️ Iran proved that the U.S. Navy can't escort tankers through the Straits of Ho...
RT Patarames
What basically happened last night: They made it out!
➡️ Iran proved that the U.S. Navy can't escort tankers through the Straits of Hormuz
Iran disincentivized future USN presence in the Persian Gulf by a strategy of low-intensity harassment fire & its willingness to escalate
Using just low-tier anti-shipping assets
The dynamics I previously outlined that enabled any operations in the SoH:
- Heavy fighter-jet presence patrolling the Straits to intercept incoming cruise-missile & OWA-drones
- High speed dash at the most distant route from Iran possible
- Heavy jamming, GPS spoofing and deception methods
- Awareness that for Iran's strategic calculus, sinking the ships would not be ideal, low-effort result-orientated strategy.
Knowing that:
➡️ It could plausibly hit the UAE and declare it is miss-fire of weapons targeting the U.S. ships
➡️ No ships would be willing to be escorted out in conditions of being under fire
➡️ Commercial Ships trapped in the Persian Gulf would fall victim of Iranian anti-ship weapons picking up the wrong target, just because an 🇺🇸 Arleight-Burke destroyer decided to position nearby
➡️ UAE not wanting to come under attack again during the entry or exit phase
Always when Trump calls Iranians lunatics it means they escalated in ways his incapable advisers had not warned him about
The Strait remains under Iranian control with no military option to open it. Only a costly War with ground troops and permanent occupation could chance that calculus
What basically happened last night: They made it out!
➡️ Iran proved that the U.S. Navy can't escort tankers through the Straits of Hormuz
Iran disincentivized future USN presence in the Persian Gulf by a strategy of low-intensity harassment fire & its willingness to escalate
Using just low-tier anti-shipping assets
The dynamics I previously outlined that enabled any operations in the SoH:
- Heavy fighter-jet presence patrolling the Straits to intercept incoming cruise-missile & OWA-drones
- High speed dash at the most distant route from Iran possible
- Heavy jamming, GPS spoofing and deception methods
- Awareness that for Iran's strategic calculus, sinking the ships would not be ideal, low-effort result-orientated strategy.
Knowing that:
➡️ It could plausibly hit the UAE and declare it is miss-fire of weapons targeting the U.S. ships
➡️ No ships would be willing to be escorted out in conditions of being under fire
➡️ Commercial Ships trapped in the Persian Gulf would fall victim of Iranian anti-ship weapons picking up the wrong target, just because an 🇺🇸 Arleight-Burke destroyer decided to position nearby
➡️ UAE not wanting to come under attack again during the entry or exit phase
Always when Trump calls Iranians lunatics it means they escalated in ways his incapable advisers had not warned him about
The Strait remains under Iranian control with no military option to open it. Only a costly War with ground troops and permanent occupation could chance that calculus
